Macro, Policy & Capital

U.S. payrolls rose 162,000 in August; unemployment held at 4.1%, while labor-force participation reached 61.6%.

· ComputeLabs Research · from the September 4, 2026 edition

U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, compared with a forecast of 55,000 and a previous reading of negative 23,000. Private payrolls rose by 127,000, while government payrolls increased by 35,000.

The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, matching both the forecast and previous reading. Labor-force participation increased to 61.6% from 61.4%, exceeding the 61.5% forecast.

Manufacturing employment increased by 16,000, versus a forecast of 5,000 and a previous gain of 5,000. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month over month and 3.1% year over year, while the average workweek increased to 34.4 hours.

Following the report, federal-funds futures indicated a 58.6% probability of a 25-basis-point September rate increase and a 41.4% probability of no change. The employment release therefore raised market expectations for tighter monetary policy, although several cited analysts said the next inflation report remained important to the decision.

  • U.S. payrolls

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